What is going to Putin do subsequent?

“What is going to Vladimir Putin do subsequent?”

It’s a query I’ve been requested lots this week.

Understandably so.

In any case, this was the week the Kremlin chief lowered the brink for using Russian nuclear weapons.

It was the week the US and UK crossed (one other) Putin crimson line, permitting Ukraine to fireplace Western-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia.

It was additionally the week that President Putin, in impact, threatened the UK, America and another nation supplying Ukraine with such weapons and for such a goal.

“We think about ourselves entitled to make use of our weapons in opposition to the navy amenities of these nations that enable their weapons for use in opposition to our amenities,” the Russian chief stated in an handle to the nation on Thursday night.

So, you may see: “What is going to Vladimir Putin do subsequent?” is a most urgent query. And, since I’m the BBC’s Russia Editor, you may anticipate me to have the reply.

I’ll be sincere with you. I don’t.

Even perhaps Putin doesn’t know the reply, which makes issues much more critical.

As a substitute of solutions, some observations.

This week the Kremlin accused the “collective West” of escalating the warfare in Ukraine.

However practically three years of warfare in Ukraine have proven that it’s Vladimir Putin who embraces escalation as a method to reaching his targets – on this case, management over Ukraine or on the very least peace on Russia’s phrases.

Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his choice to declare 4 Ukrainian territories a part of Russia, his deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk area, his choice on Thursday to focus on the Ukrainian metropolis of Dnipro with a brand new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, adopted up by threats to strike the West – all of those symbolize moments of escalation on this battle.

I as soon as described Vladimir Putin as a automobile with no reverse gear and no brakes, careering down the freeway, accelerator pedal caught to the ground.

From what I can see, little has modified.

Don’t anticipate the Putinmobile to abruptly decelerate or de-escalate now within the face of longer-range missile strikes on Russia.

Escalation, although, is one other matter. That’s a definite risk.

Ukraine might be bracing itself for extra Russian assaults, even heavier bombardments.

Western governments might be assessing the menace stage in gentle of Putin’s warnings.

Even earlier than the Kremlin chief’s TV handle, there had been fears within the West of an upsurge in hybrid Russian warfare.

Final month the pinnacle of MI5 warned that Russian navy intelligence was engaged in a marketing campaign to “generate mayhem on British and European streets”.

“We’ve seen arson, sabotage and extra,” he added.

Again in June, Putin urged that Moscow may arm adversaries of the West if Ukraine had been allowed to strike deep into Russia with Western long-range missiles.

“We consider that if somebody is pondering it’s potential to produce such weapons to a warfare zone to strike our territory and create issues for us,” he stated, “why can’t we provide our weapons of the identical class to these areas world wide the place they’ll goal delicate amenities of the nations which can be doing this to Russia?”

Putin warns West as Russia hits Ukraine with new missile

The query “What is going to Putin do subsequent?” is often adopted by: “Would Putin use a nuclear weapon within the Ukraine warfare?”

The Russian president has dropped some unsubtle hints.

On saying the beginning of his “particular navy operation” – the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – he had issued a warning to “those that could also be tempted to intervene from the surface”.

“Regardless of who tries to face in our method or create threats for our nation and our folks,” the Kremlin chief declared, “they have to know that Russia will reply instantly.

“And the implications might be equivalent to you’ve gotten by no means seen in your total historical past.”

Western leaders usually dismissed what they noticed as nuclear sabre-rattling. Because the begin of the warfare Western governments have crossed a number of Russian “crimson strains”: offering Ukraine with tanks, superior missile methods after which F-16 fighter jets.

The “penalties” threatened by the Kremlin by no means materialised.

In September Putin introduced he was reducing the brink for using nuclear weapons – the decree was revealed this week. A transparent warning to Europe and America to not enable longer-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

Now this crimson line, too, has been crossed. In his handle to the nation Putin confirmed Western experiences that Ukraine had fired US-supplied Atacms and British-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia.

Earlier this week, when pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets requested a retired lieutenant-general how Russia ought to reply to an Atacms assault on Bryansk area, he replied:

“Beginning World Warfare Three over strikes on an arms depot in Bryansk area would in all probability be short-sighted.”

It will be comforting to assume that the Kremlin shares that view.

However Vladimir Putin’s handle to the nation contained no proof of that.

His message to Ukraine’s supporters within the West gave the impression to be: it is a crimson line I’m critical about, I dare you to cross it.

“Even Putin doesn’t know whether or not he can use a nuclear weapon, or he can’t. It is determined by his feelings,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov instructed me lately.

“We all know he’s a really emotional man. The choice to start this warfare was additionally an emotional step. Due to that we should take significantly his concept of the altering of the nuclear doctrine. They are saying the concern of warfare should return and can comprise each side, however that is additionally a device of escalation.

“On this interpretation we should admit that Putin, below some circumstances, can use at the least a tactical nuclear weapon within the framework of a restricted nuclear warfare. It is not going to resolve the issue. However it is going to be the beginning of a suicidal escalation for the entire world.”

Tactical nuclear weapons are small warheads meant to be used on the battlefield or a restricted strike.

Vladimir Putin could act on feelings. He’s additionally, clearly, pushed by resentment of the West and seems decided to not again down.

However he additionally is aware of the world may quickly be a really totally different place.

In two months’ time Joe Biden might be out of workplace and Donald Trump might be within the White Home.

President-Elect Trump has expressed scepticism relating to US navy help for Ukraine and has been fiercely important of Nato.

He’s additionally stated lately that speaking to Vladimir Putin can be “a sensible factor”.

All of that ought to be music to Putin’s ears.

Which implies that, regardless of the most recent threats and warnings, the Kremlin could determine in opposition to a significant escalation proper now.

That’s, if the Kremlin has calculated that Donald Trump will assist finish the warfare on phrases helpful to Russia.

If that calculation modifications, so may Moscow’s response.