Well being and Human Providers Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared to suggest in latest days that the measles outbreak in western Texas was slowing down.
In a put up on X on Sunday, Kennedy remarked on the second demise linked to the outbreak, which occurred in an unvaccinated school-aged little one.
About 10 minutes later, Kennedy edited the put up so as to add that the curve has been flattening since early March, when he began sending in reinforcements from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention — supplying clinics with vaccines and different medicines.
“Since that point, the expansion charges for brand new circumstances and hospitalizations have flattened,” he wrote.
Nevertheless, information from the Texas Division of State Well being Providers confirmed that circumstances are growing, with extra counties in western Texas reporting infections.
Katherine Wells, director of public well being for Lubbock, Texas, stated final week that public well being officers had been projecting “a year-long timeline for management of the outbreak.”
“That is going to be a big outbreak, and we’re nonetheless on the aspect of accelerating variety of circumstances, each on account of unfold and elevated testing capability,” she stated.
Public well being specialists advised ABC Information they’re skeptical that the curve is flattening and consider that circumstances linked to the outbreak are usually not solely growing, however possible a lot increased than the official case depend.
“This outbreak is much from below management — even when the curve begins to flatten, we nonetheless face main dangers in under-vaccinated communities throughout the nation,” stated Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer, in addition to an ABC Information contributor. “With so many pockets of low vaccination, we’re nonetheless on the point of widespread, sustained transmission until pressing motion is taken.”
Well being and Human Providers Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., proper, arrives at Reinlander Mennonite Church after a second measles demise, April 6, 2025, in Seminole, Texas.
Annie Rice/AP
Doubtless extra circumstances in Texas
As of Tuesday, there have been 505 confirmed measles circumstances in Texas, in accordance with DSHS information.
Between March 28 and April 4, DSHS confirmed 81 circumstances — one of many highest totals confirmed in a single week for the reason that first circumstances had been recognized in late January. The Texas Division of State Well being Providers doesn’t make hospitalization charges accessible to the general public.
“We all know that there have been extra circumstances, a minimum of sustained circumstances, over the previous couple months. We all know that the scale of the outbreak has jumped fairly considerably over the previous month,” Dr. Craig Spencer, an affiliate professor of the follow of well being companies, coverage and follow on the Brown College College of Public Well being, advised ABC Information.
ABC Information has requested a replica of the info that Kennedy is referring to when making claims concerning the curve flattening, however has not but heard again from the HHS.
“We do not have a full image of what is occurring on the bottom due to our incapacity to achieve some communities. And so, I definitely wouldn’t really feel assured saying that we’ve plateaued,” he added.
Spencer stated one purpose he’s not comfy saying the outbreak has plateaued in Texas is that he believes the variety of circumstances is probably going an undercount.
Yale College of Public Well being
Texas DSHS stated any circumstances reported after March 16 are incomplete, and extra circumstances could also be reported.
There have been two confirmed deaths linked to the Texas outbreak and a 3rd demise is being investigated in New Mexico in an unvaccinated grownup who examined optimistic after dying.
“We all know that there is actually, on common, about one demise for each round 1,000 circumstances,” Spencer stated. “We have already seen three deaths, which might make you think it is most likely extra like 3,000 circumstances.”
“It feels very, very possible that the depend is increased than 500,” he stated, including, “It is not inconceivable for there to be three deaths amongst 500 circumstances, however statistically, one would count on extra circumstances for that variety of deaths.”
Dr. Megan Ranney, dean of the Yale College of Public Well being, advised ABC Information there may be danger in saying the circumstances have flattened when the info might counsel in any other case. Particularly, she stated is frightened that individuals could also be dissuaded from getting examined or handled.
“We all know that many individuals are avoiding formal medical care and due to this fact testing. There’s all the time a delay in reporting even when persons are examined,” Ranney stated. “I fear that persons are afraid to get measles examined or to deliver their child in for care.”
“My different fear is we nonetheless need folks to take prevention measures and, in fact, we all know the vaccine will not be solely the most secure approach, but in addition the best method to stop an infection with measles,” she continued.
Kennedy promotes catch-all therapies not supposed for all measles circumstances
In a second social media put up on Sunday night, Kennedy shared that he had met the households of the 2 school-aged youngsters who died of measles in Texas, in addition to a 3rd household who reportedly had a daughter within the ICU for 3 weeks with measles.
Kennedy stated he additionally met with two physicians who’ve “handled and healed” about 300 youngsters contaminated with measles within the Mennonite neighborhood with aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.
A vial of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine is on show on the Lubbock Well being Division, on Feb. 26, 2025, in Lubbock, Texas.
Mary Conlon/AP
Aerosolized budesonide is a steroid used to cut back irritation within the lungs, making it simpler to breathe. Clarithromycin is an antibiotic used to deal with bacterial infections.
“When you had been to go to any evidence-based therapy tips, there may be nothing that claims it’s best to deal with sufferers with budesonide or clarithromycin,” Spencer stated. “Now these are medicines which have a broad suite of makes use of, and so I am not going to say that they’ve completely no indication for measles, or actually anything.”
He stated there are situations by which both medicine could also be utilized in a measles affected person, however it’s on a case-by-case foundation.
“I do not assume that they are hurting anybody, however they’re most likely not serving to anybody,” he added. “They aren’t in any respect instruments that I might attain to as my first, or actually even second, line of instruments that I might use in somebody presenting with signs in keeping with measles.”
In an interview with ABC Information Stay on Monday, Dr. Peter Marks, the previous director of the Heart for Biologics Analysis and Analysis inside the Meals and Drug Administration — who’s reported to have been pressured out — stated budesonide, clarithromycin and vitamin A — one other therapy endorsed by Kennedy — are neither preventatives nor “actual therapy” for all circumstances of measles.
He highlighted the significance of receiving the measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR, vaccine. The CDC at the moment recommends that individuals obtain two doses of the MMR vaccine, the primary at ages 12 to fifteen months and the second between 4 and 6 years previous. One dose is 93% efficient, and two doses are 97% efficient in opposition to measles or almost 100% efficient in opposition to dying of measles after contracting it.
Some folks could also be in danger for an opposed response with any vaccine, so specialists say it is necessary to debate the dangers and advantages with a well being care supplier.
“It must be a straightforward choice, as simple as shopping for a automotive seat and strapping your child in,” Marks stated about getting a vaccine if eligible. “You’d by no means drive with out your child strapped into their automotive seat. , in case you had an 18-month-old, why would not you give that little one one thing that would stop your little one from dying of an an infection when there is a one in 1,000 probability in the event that they get measles, they might die from it?”
ABC Information’ Dr. Mark Abdelmalek contributed to this report.